Blackjack Insurance: Should You Take It?
The side bet that feels safe and costs you money, with the maths.
Insurance is a side bet that loses about 7.7 pence for every £1 you put on it. It does not protect your hand. It is a separate bet, and it has a house edge much larger than the blackjack game itself.
What insurance is
When the dealer's face-up card is an ace, many games offer insurance before play continues. You can put up to half your original bet on the side bet that the dealer has blackjack. If the dealer has blackjack, insurance pays 2 to 1. If not, you lose the insurance bet and play on.
The maths
With an ace showing, the dealer has blackjack when the hidden card is a 10, jack, queen or king. That is 4 cards in 13, or about 30.8%, with an infinite deck. For every £1 on insurance:
- With probability 4/13 you win £2.
- With probability 9/13 you lose £1.
The average result is (2 × 4 − 1 × 9) ÷ 13 = −1 ÷ 13, a loss of about 7.7 pence per £1. With eight decks the figure is about 7.5 pence, and with six decks about 7.4 pence. The number of decks barely matters.
Does insurance protect a good hand?
It feels like it does, but it does not. Insurance has the same average cost whatever your hand is. If you have 20 and the dealer has an ace, insurance is just as bad a bet as when you have 14. It only wins when the dealer has blackjack, and in that case you would lose your main bet anyway, so the two bets cancel out. When the dealer does not have blackjack, you have paid for protection you did not need.
The one exception for card counters is when more than a third of the remaining cards are tens, because then the odds of blackjack pass 1 in 3 and insurance breaks even. A normal player cannot see that, and basic strategy ignores it.
What about even money?
If you have a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, some games offer even money: you take a 1 to 1 win straight away instead of waiting. That is insurance in disguise.
- Take even money: you win £1 for every £1 bet, every time.
- Decline it: you push (win nothing) if the dealer has blackjack, which happens 4 times in 13, and win £1.50 otherwise. On average that is £1.038 per £1.
Declining is better by about 3.8 pence per £1 on average. Taking it feels safe, but over many hands it costs you.
Games without insurance
Some games do not offer insurance at all, because the dealer checks for blackjack as soon as an ace is showing. Players report that GTA Online's casino blackjack works this way. See the GTA Online blackjack calculator for the rules it assumes. The blackjack calculator never recommends insurance.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I take insurance in blackjack?
No. Basic strategy says never. Insurance loses about 7.7 pence for every £1 you put on it, because the dealer has blackjack only about 30.8% of the time when showing an ace.
Should I take insurance if I have a good hand?
No. Insurance is a separate bet and has the same average cost whatever your hand is.
Should I take even money with a blackjack?
No. Declining even money is better on average, about 3.8 pence per £1, because you win £1.50 most of the time and only push when the dealer has blackjack.
Does insurance ever make sense?
Only for card counters, when more than a third of the remaining cards are tens. A normal player cannot know that, so basic strategy says never take it.