Blackjack 16 vs 10: Hit, Stand or Surrender?
The most argued-about hand in blackjack, with the exact numbers behind the answer.
Hard 16 against a dealer 10 is one of the worst spots in blackjack. Whatever you do, you expect to lose more than half your bet. Surrender loses the least, and hitting loses a tiny bit less than standing.
The numbers
These are the average results per £1 bet on a hard 16 against a dealer 10, including the times the dealer has blackjack. They assume an infinite deck and a dealer who checks for blackjack, and they are calculated exactly, not simulated.
| Your move | Average result per £1 |
|---|---|
| Surrender (if allowed) | −£0.539 |
| Hit | −£0.575 |
| Stand | −£0.576 |
Hitting and standing are almost a tie. Hitting wins by less than one thousandth of your bet, which is why you will often see people argue about it. Surrender is clearly better than both because it gives you back half your bet for certain.
Why hit when you will probably bust?
Hitting 16 busts about 62% of the time, which makes hitting feel wrong. Standing feels no better when you think about what you are up against. Once the dealer has been checked for blackjack, a dealer showing a 10 busts only about 23% of the time and makes 17 or more the other 77%. A standing 16 only wins when the dealer busts and loses the rest of the time.
When both choices are losing ones, the right choice is the one that loses least. Taking a card gives you a chance to make a hand that can win: a 5 makes 21, a 4 makes 20, a 3 makes 19 and a 2 makes 18, while an ace makes 17. Those outcomes are why hitting ends up level with, or marginally ahead of, standing.
How to play 16 against every dealer card
Here is the full row for a hard 16 from the basic strategy chart. Dealer stands on soft 17, surrender not allowed, then with surrender allowed.
No surrender
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Surrender allowed
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | R | R | R |
Stand against a dealer 2 to 6, where the dealer is likely to bust. Hit against a 7 or 8. Against a 9, 10 or ace, surrender if you can and hit if you cannot.
Other things to know
- A pair of 8s is not a hard 16. If your two cards are 8 and 8, you split them. See when to split pairs.
- Three-card 16s. When 16 is made of three or more cards, some more detailed charts say to stand against a 10 because the extra cards in your hand change what is left in the shoe. The difference is tiny, and this calculator gives the same advice for any 16.
- 15 against 10 is the same story. Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit. Hard 17 against a 10 is a stand.
- Surrender only exists in some games. Check the rules. See when to surrender.
More blackjack strategy guides
Want the move for a particular hand? Use the blackjack calculator.
Check any hand in the calculator
Choose the dealer's card and your cards to see the best move for your table rules.
Frequently asked questions
Should I hit or stand on 16 against a dealer 10?
Hit, if you cannot surrender. The two choices are very close, but hitting loses very slightly less on average. If your game allows late surrender, surrender is better than both.
What is the best move for 16 against 10 if surrender is allowed?
Surrender. You lose half your bet, which on average costs you about 54 pence per £1 compared with about 57.5 pence for hitting or standing.
Why not stand on 16 and hope the dealer busts?
The dealer busts only about 23% of the time with a 10 showing. Standing wins in just those cases and loses all the rest. Hitting gives you a chance of making 18 to 21, which can beat the dealer's likely 17.
Is 16 against 10 different with 6 or 8 decks?
The basic strategy answer is the same. The differences between hit and stand are tiny and depend on the exact cards in your hand.